四川省中西部地震重点监视防御区城乡震害预测

Earthquake Disaster Prediction of Town and Country in the Focal Monitoring Area in the Middle-west of Sichuan

本文简要介绍了全国地震重点监视防御区之一的四川省中西部地区的社会经济、自然地理、地震地质、地震活动及未来地震危险性概况，给出了防御区内冕宁、宁南、普格、石棉、沪定、康定等六县城乡开展的房屋建筑，生命线工程（公路、供电、供水工程）震害预测，次生灾害分析预测、地震造成伤亡人数估计和直接经济损失预测等的预测方法和预测结果。由于四川过去尚未开展过这类工作，本文将上述成果汇总、整理发表，可供同行讨论和有关方面参考。

In this paper, we briefed the social economy,natural geography, seismogeology, seismicity and future seismic risk on the situation; introduced the main prediction methods and prediction results about the disaster prediction of buildings, vital engineering(highways,electric power, water-supply engineering), secondary disaster, personal casualties and economic loss. Because the works have not been carried out in the past in Sichuan, above data that we sort out and publish can supply same prefession to discuss and the department concerned to refer.