ENSO预报模式及其改进的进展

REVIEW ON THE ENSO PREDICTION MODEL AND ITS IMPROVEMENT

近年来，为预报ＥＮＳＯ事件已研制出多种方法，包括海气耦合动力学模式、统计模式、物理海洋／优计大气模式等。其中耦合动力学模式的范围从简单的浅水模式到复杂的大气环流模式（ＧＣＭ）。在１９８０～１９９２年的这一时段内，一些动力学模式和统计模式预报ＥＮＳＯ指数提前６～１２个月的水平已超过了持续性预报。然而，自从１９９２年以来，几乎所有的模式都失去了它以前的预报性能，预报的６个月赤道东太平洋海温与实况位相是反的。这一失败不但是对备种模式的一个挑战，也是对人们已有的ＥＮＳＯ循环机制认识的一个挑战。于是，改进模式的热潮正在国内外掀起。模式繁多，预报结果也各家不一。本文在介绍部分模式的同时也给出作者对ＥＮＳＯ循环机制的认识和对Ｚｅｂｉａｋ－Ｃａｎｅ模式作的改进。

In recent years, varied models which include coupled atmosphere-ocean moedl and statistical model and physical ocean/statistical atmosphere model have been developed for prediction ofENSO events. During pen6d of 1980-1992, some models (dynamical and statistical)perforrnedconsiderably better than the persistence forecast on predicting typical indices of ENSO on leadtime of 6 to 12 months. However, nearly all models have failed in forecasting SST changes inthe Easter Equatorial Pacific since 1992. It is a challenge not only to the models but also to theunderstanding of the mechanism of ENSO cycle. Thus, scientists are working hard for improving their models. This paper briefly introduces some models and their prediction results, and illustrate the understanding of the mechanism of ENSO cycle and recent work for improving Ze biak-Cane model by author.