全球变暖对我国亚热带北界的影响

EFFECT OF GLOBAL WARMING ON CHANGE IN NORTHERN LIMIT OF THE SUBTROPICAL ZONE OF CHINA

根据历史气候暖期亚热带北界变迁和划分亚热带北界的热量指标，借助于文献〔１〕模拟ＣＯ２倍增的全球平均温度状况，采用几种气候指标推估的经验公式，预测未来气候变暖背景下我国亚热带北界的位置。结果表明，ＣＯ２倍增状况下，我国亚热带北界平均约北移３个纬度。

Following the thermal index for defining the northern limit of the subtropical zone during the warming in history and the simulated global mean temperature rise in the presence of CO 2 doubling, the position of the limit is predicted for the furture in terms of the empirical expression formulated from a range of climatic indices. Results show that the northern limit will be shifted, on average, 3 degrees of latitude northward, with the SW NE orientation.