示踪技术用于气体泄漏扩散模拟的多元线性回归分析

Multiple regression analysis on gas-leakage diffusion simulation by using tracer technique

采用江苏工业学院油气储运安全综合实验模型平台,利用示踪技术(以CO2为示踪剂),模拟了有害气体瞬时泄漏扩散的整个过程。并结合多元线性回归分析的基本方法,定量分析了气体泄漏扩散过程,建立了多元线性回归模型,初步确定了泄漏气体浓度与相关物理量的变化关系,在此基础上得到了2个定量评价指标:确定性系数R=0.991,相关系数r=0.995。研究表明,在实验室建立的试验模型能较好地反映现实情况,模型仿真度较高,数据拟合效果较好。研究可为评价模型的相似性提供理论参考,对有害气体泄漏扩散事故应急救援、实施有效的现场控制,具有一定的科学参考价值。

The present research has been done based on the experi- mental model platform of oil-gas storage and transportation security in Jiangsu Polytechnic University. It is actually simulation to the whole process of harmful gas instantaneous leakage diffusion by means of tracer technique. In doing so, the authors have also made quantitative analysis to the leakage diffusion process along with the common methods of multiple linear regression analysis in defining the elementary relationship between the leakage gas concentration and the corresponding physical quantities. Thus we have obtained two quantitative evaluating indicators, that is, the deterministic coefficient （R = 0.991 ） and the correlation coefficient （ r = 0.995） . The results indicate that the experimental model built in laboratory could well reflect the actual conditions. Emulation degree of the model proves high with the fitting effect of the data being perfect. Hence, the research can be taken as a theoretical reference to evaluating the comparability of the model and a valuable reference to emergency rescue response to leakage diffusion.