危险品道路运输风险分级指数法研究

Study on the risk rank indices of hazardous materials transportation

危险品道路运输过程风险影响因素多,随机性和不确定性大,定量风险评价比较复杂,至今没有统一的风险评估模型。为了有效预防危险品运输事故和进行快速风险评估,基于运输危险品本身特性和相关的风险影响因素探讨了运输危险品现实风险分级指数法。该方法由危险品风险分级指数、路线影响因素和安全措施补偿因子3部分构成。危险品风险分级指数由危险品加权平均风险等级和运输危险品量、泄漏点与居民区距离以及危险品扩散因子等级确定。危险品加权平均风险等级涉及其健康危害性、可燃性、化学反应活性以及特殊危险性(氧化性和与水反应性)等级的确定。路线影响因素包含运输道路特征、气象条件、交通状况和影响人员分布4类。安全措施补偿因子为车辆、设备、容器、包装因子,人员素质因子和安全管理因子3类。该方法可对运输危险品的潜在风险进行快速分级,有利于采取有效的安全预防和控制措施,降低运输事故概率和沿线影响人员风险。

As a rule, hazardous material （Hazmat） transportation is regarded as a kind of linear transferring hazard source due to a lot of random and unexpected factors even among the experts. This paper is aimed to present a risk rank index method based on the study of hazmat characteristics and risk factors involved, such as the hazmat risk rating index, impacted factors of route and safety precaution compensated factors. Actually, hazmat risk rating index is based on the hazmat inherent hazard features, including the health-threatening hazard, flammability hazard, reactivity hazard and special hazard, and quantity of hazmat, habitation distance as well as dispersion factor at 5 ranks. The route-lmpacting factors may consist of road quality, weather condition, traffic condition and population distribution along with the safety precaution compensated factors. The method introduced here can be applied to assess the hazard potential of hazmat transportation quickly and conveniently and therefore can be taken as a supportive safety measure in transportation practice.