考虑不确定性因素的需求侧管理成本效益分析模型

Cost-Benefit Analysis Models for DSM Project Considering Uncertain Factors

在考虑不确定因素和资金时间价值的条件下,针对需求侧管理(demand side management,DSM)项目建立了一套评价指标体系和成本效益评价模型,并根据实施DSM项目过程中的风险因素构造了包含不确定因素的随机数学模型,然后通过计算DSM项目净现值的期望值和方差衡量实施DSM的风险程度。以居民照明用电为例进行的实证研究结果表明,考虑不确定因素的DSM项目成本效益评价更符合实际情况,因此在实施过程中能更多地减少风险。

Considering uncertain factors and time value of capital, a set of models to evaluate index system and cost-benefit for demand side management （DSM） is established According to the risk factor during the implementation of DSM project a probabilistic mathematical model containing uncertain factors is constructed. The risk extent of implementing DSM is weighed up by calculating the expected value and variance of DSM project＇s net present value （NVP）. Taking the lighting demand of inhabitants for example, the case study results show that the cost-benefit evaluation of DSM project, in which the uncertain factors are considered, can coincide with actual conditions better, so in its implementation the risk can be reduced.