电力市场中基于情景分析的电网规划方案适应性评估

Scenario Analysis Based Flexibility Evaluation of Power Grid Planning under Deregulation

对电网规划方案进行适应性评估是电网规划工作的一个重要补充。在市场环境下,原有的电网规划方案是否适应未来市场交易的要求,是评估工作面临的新挑战。鉴于电力系统以及电力市场中诸多不确定性因素的影响,本文基于电力市场模拟的原理,将情景分析引入到电力市场环境下电网规划方案的适应性评估之中,并以电价不确定性的分析为例,详细描述了电力市场中对不确定性因素进行情景分析的基本思想、方法、流程。文中采用了情景出现概率及其重要程度两个指标来衡量各个情景的评估次序,为从大量情景中进行高效的筛选提供了一个便捷的途径。将该整体思路应用于东北电网规划方案的评估中,结合东北区域电力市场运营规则,进行了2010年电网规划的市场化模拟与评估。实际应用表明,所提出的评估方法能够很好地筛选出电力市场中的重要情景,为市场环境下电网规划方案适应性评估提供了一个有力的工具,具有较大的实用价值。

It is an important supplement for power grid planning to perform its flexibility evaluation. In electricity market environment, it is a new challenge to the assessment that whether existing power grid planning can suit the requirement of transactions in future market or not. In view of the impacts of uncertain factors in power grids and electricity markets, based on the basic principle of electricity market simulation the scenario analysis is led into flexibility evaluation of power grid planning under deregulation, and taking the uncertainty analysis of electricity price for example, the basic idea, method and process of scenario analysis for uncertain factors under electricity market condition are described in detail. In order to provide a convenient approach to efficiently screen a lot of scenarios, two indices, i.e., occurrence probability and the importance of scenarios, are used to judge the evaluation order of all the scenarios. Applying the whole thinking in the evaluation of Northeast power grid planning and combining the operation rules of Northeast regional electricity market, the market simulation and evaluation of power grid planning in the year of 2010 is carried out. The application results show that the proposed evaluation method that could well find out the important scenario in electricity market is a powerful tool for flexibility evaluation of power grid planning under deregulation and it is practicable.