2006年上半年经济形势分析与展望

Economic performance in H1 2006：Analysis and prospect

今年以来，我国经济持续稳定增长的基础继续改善，国内外需求增长强劲，可持续性较好；市场的基础性作用增强，经济总量和结构关系改善。当前经济运行的主要问题包括：货币总量偏大，增长偏快；房地产市场和房地产业发展还存在不稳定因素；仍可能发生行政主导的投资趋热。但随着调控成效的逐渐显现，以上问题会得到一定的控制。全年经济将继续保持高位稳定的特点，经济增长率预计达到10％左右，居民消费价格指数涨幅预计在1．5％左右。

Since January this year, the fundamentals for China＇s sustainable and stable economic development have kept improving, and demands from home and abroad have expanded vigorously, showing a sound momentum of sustainability. The basic functions of markets are strengthened and the relation between economic aggregate and structure is perfected. Major problems in the current economic operation include： excessively large volume and high growth of money supply; instability in the real estate market and the industrial development; and potential investment overheating driven by bottlenecks in administration. These problems are sure to be brought under control as the adjustments gradually show their effects. For the whole year 2006, the economy will continue its stability at a high level of growth; the growth rate is expected to reach 10% or so; and the consumer price index is estimated to rise about 1.5%.