一个核事故应急防护决策计算机优化筛选系统

A COMPUTERISED DECISION MAKING SYSTEM FOR OPTIMISING EMERGENCY RESPONSE TO NUCLEAR ACCIDENTS

在核事故应急情况下，在什么时刻、采取什么规模和什么防护措施来保护公众是应急决策的任务。由于时间紧、心理压力大、影响因素繁多，只靠人脑和临时研究是很难得出优化方案的。计算机支持的、并建立在有大量数据的数据库和基本防护方案预先研究基础上的决策系统可以发挥很大的作用。即使在事故中、后期和应急准备阶段，这种系统也可以在大量反复优化分析、演示、培训和演习方面发挥很大作用。本文介绍中国原子能科学研究院在１９９５年研制完成的一个计算机决策优化筛选系统的主要模型。

In the case of a nuclear emergency, it is the task of emergency decision making to determine when and what countermeasures to be taken, and in what scale of which to be implemented. In view of the time pressing, heavy psychological pressure and complicated factors, it is hard to bring forward a optimising plan in a emergency condition only relying on one′s brain and temporal analyses and syntheses. A computer aided system, which is set up on databases and as many as pre designed possible procedures, would be much helpful. Even for emergency preparedness and during the middle or later phase of a accident, the system would play a important role in optimisation and demonstration of emergency plan, in training of emergency personnel, and in emergency exercises. The paper introduced its models, parameters and main properties of such a system which was recently developed by China Institute of Atomic Energy.