能源对中国经济增长制约作用的实证研究

Analysis for Economic Growth and Energy

本文从理论和实证角度研究了中国GDP和能源消费的动态关系,通过对GDP与能源消费格兰杰因果关系的检验,发现两者之间存在着单向因果关系,经济增长导致能源消费的增加;通过对GDP与能源消费的协整检验和建立误差修正模型发现:中国GDP与能源消费之间存在着协整关系,误差修正模型显示了两者之间的长期均衡机制,长短期能源弹性系数说明,从长期来看,能源并不会成为经济增长的“瓶颈”,但必须注意能源对经济发展方式的影响,制定中长期规划来引导经济结构和能源产业的结构调整。

The article analysed the dynamic effect between the GDP in China and the energy consume. Therough the test of cointegration we find that there is cointegration between the energy consume and the GDP in China,and the resid improving model indicate that the mechnism of long term between the GDP in China and the energy consume will augment the energy consume apparently. So we must pay attention to the dynamic effect and take long term measure of energy consume to augment the economy development.