坡地地质灾害的减灾策略——以降雨预警基准为例

Mitigation of landslide hazards:Case study of rainfall warning criteria

降雨是诱发坡地地质灾害的重要原因,因此掌握降雨的趋势与分布规律,可有效地用于坡地灾害预警,但由于降雨预测精度、灾害资料统计的不足与坡地地质条件的不确定性,实际应用降雨预警基准仍存在许多困难。通过分析台风诱发坡地地质灾害的降雨特性,来说明降雨预警基准在防灾减灾工作上应用的条件与限制。结果表明,对于不同类型之坡地灾害与降雨分布特性,需采用不同的雨量预警基准。唯有通过岩土力学、工程地质学与气象学的整合研究,才能有效提高降雨预警基准预测的准确率,因此各学科的整合是未来防灾减灾研究工作的发展趋势。

Rainfall is the main factor initiating landslide hazards. Because of the improvement of weather forecast technique many studies use rainfall warning criteria to prevent landslide hazards. Unfortunately, it is hard to use in practice owing to the inaccuracy of forecast, insufficiency of hazard historical data and uncertainty of geology. This paper analyzes the relationship between landslides and characteristics of rainfall. The results show that the suitable rainfall warning criteria should be developed in accordance with different landslide hazards and pattern chanics, engineering grated studies about geology of rainfall. Moreover, the integrated studies combining geomeand meteorology can improve the performance of rainfall warning criteria. Consequently, the intemitigation of hazards are the tendency toward hazard prevention.