广东省天然气下游用户市场潜力分析

Potential Analysis of the Lower-Reach Gas-Consumer Market in Guangdong Province

广东省天然气下游大型用户对天然气价格的承受能力对整个天然气产业链的正常运转的影响是非常重要的．通过分析,评估了大型燃气-蒸汽联合循环电厂、城市居民燃气用户、9E机组油改气、分布式热电冷联产等市场的需求,认为广东省天然气市场的需求潜力非常大。同时,还通过经济分析得出在目前电价体制下,大型天然气电厂很难与燃煤电厂进行竞价上网．因而,为了增强整个天然气产业链的抗风险能力,并提高能源的合理使用水平,大型天然气电厂不应作为未来天然气产业链的最主要用户,但仍应占据一定比例．

The lower-reach big gas-consumers＇ capacity to adapt to the gas price has very important influence on the normal operation of the natural gas industry chain. This paper, through analysis, estimates the needs of the gas market of combined cycle of gas-steam power plants, city residents＇ gas consumption, S209E gas turbine, distributed cooling, heating and power system etc. The results show that the potential of the gas market in Gungdong province is considerable. At the same time, we have learned that natural gas（NG） power plants don＇t have any superiority in power price compared to coal power plants under the present power price system. Therefore, the NG combined cycle of gas-steam power plants will not be the most important lower-reach consumers any more, but there should be a certain proportion for them in order to develop the risk-resistant ability of the natural gas industry chain and raise the level of rational utilization of energy resources.