现代流行病学特点和进展

Features and progresses of modern epidemiology

流行病学是一门医学科学的基础学科和方法学,主要具有群体性、分布性、对比性、概率论、宏观方法性、社会医学性、实用性和预防为主的特点。目前流行病学发展趋势是研究领域不断扩大和相关学科不断增加,主要表现包括新评价指标,如累计发生率(CI)、发病率密度(ID)、潜在寿命损失年(PYLL)、失能调整的寿命年(DALY)和新方法,如Meta分析、巢式病例对照研究、捕捉-标记-再捕捉法(CMR)、串联筛查法、按容量比例概率抽样方法(PPS)、批质量保证抽样法(LQAS)、通径分析、随机应答技术(RRT)、德尔菲法、多维综合评价法以及新概念,如主动监测、第2代监测、偏倚、效应修饰作用。展望未来,流行病学将向高层次发展掘进,应高度警惕新出现疾病出现、积极探索非传染病病因、努力提高健康水准,做好流行病学评价工作。

Epidemiology is a basic subject and methodology with the features of groups, distributions, contrast, probability, macro - method, social medicine, pragmatics. Nowadays, the developing tendencies of epidemiology are expanding research fields and increasing related subjects; those show as following, （1） new evaluation indexes ： Cumulative Ineidenee （ CI ）, Ineidenee Density （ ID ）, Potential Years of Life Lose（ PYLL）, Disability - Adjusted Life Years （DALY） ; （2）new methods： Metu - analysis, Case - Control Study Nested in a Cohort, Capture- Mark- Recapture（CMR）, Parallel Screening, Probability Proportional to Size（PPS）, Lot Quality Assurance Sample（LQAS）, Path Analysis, Randomized Response Technique （ RRT）, Delphi Method, Synthesis of Multivariate Assessment （3） new concepts： Active Surveillance, Second Generation of Surveillance, Bias, Effect Modification. Epidemiology will develop towards high levels in future, so we must be highly on guard against emerging diseases and actively probe the causes of non - infectious diseases and greatly elevate healthy standards and do epidemiological appraisement well.