经济过热统计检验与货币政策分析

Statistical Inspection for Excessive Economy and Analysis of Money Policy

2003年以来我国经济增长保持快速发展趋势,固定资产投资和货币供应量及金融机构贷款增长迅猛.而在某些行业如房地产、汽车制造、水泥、钢铁及有色金属等行业,在一些地方又出现了盲目投资和低水平重复建设现象,这些现象引起了人们对当前经济增长状况的担忧,有人认为中国经济已经过热了,出现了通货膨胀的趋势,需要降温;而有人则认为中国仍然处于消费不足的状态中,还要进一步启动经济.中国经济是否过热,本文使用统计数据来做检验,并进行货币政策分析.

From year 2003, Chinese economic growth is rising rapidly, and fixed assets are increasing sharply as well as money supply and financial loans. In some industries such as real estate, automobile mannfacturing industry, cement industry, steel industry and nonferrous metals industry, it is investing blindly and duplicate, with low technical level. Some people begin to worry about it, some people consider that Chinese economic growth is getting too hot to form inflation currency, and that should be cooler later. But some other people believe that consumer goods consumption is still insuffieient, and the economy needs further increase. How is Chinese economy.？ Let＇s talk about it with statistical data.