技术预见在三次采油发展战略中的应用

Application of Technical Foresight for EOR Development Strategy

三次采油技术在很大程度上已经成为石油供给安全的关键因素,因此,以社会、环境、经济、技术四者和谐统一为核心思想的技术预见在三次采油技术发展战略中的应用具有开创性和实效性。基于此,建立了三次采油技术预见指标体系,从系统领域划分为社会系统、环境系统、经济系统和技术本身,共包含了7个指标,考虑了技术对国家石油安全、企业经济效益、企业品牌竞争、环境友好的重要程度,同时关注了技术发展水平、技术发展制约因素以及技术被较大规模使用的实现时间;设计了定性与定量相结合的技术预见理论和方法,并对三次采油技术进行了归纳分类;针对稠油油藏开发中的热力采油技术进行了预见算例分析,得出了具有指导意义的结论。

EOR technology has become one critical factor for petroleum supply safety in large extent,so application of technical foresight displays pioneering and efficiency,which takes the concordantly unified society,environment,economy and technique as its core.Based on this,index system of EOR technical foresight is constructed,composed by social system,environment system,economic system and technical system totally including 7 indexes.It has considered the impact of technique on national petroleum safety,enterprise economic benefit,brand competition among enterprises and friendly-environment.At the same time,it studies present technical development,inhibiting factors and larger-scale technology realized time.This paper offers theory and method design of technical foresight combining with quality and quantity methods,also it have finished the induction and classification of EOR technology.As to thermal recovery method used for heavy oil reservoir,a foresight example is performed and a guide conclusion is made