2006中国石油市场半年回眸与前瞻

Review of the Chinese Oil Market in the First Five Months of 2006 and Prospects for the Rest of the Year

与2005年同期相比,2006年1-5月中国国内原油和油品产量增长速度放慢,石油进口和石油表观消费量快速增长,但实际消费增长相对稳定,市场价格屡创历史新高。国家在石油上游生产、贸易领域以及节能和开发替代能源等方面出台的新政策,将对未来中国石油市场产生深远的影响。预计下半年中国实际石油消费量的增长仍将低于表观消费量的增长;石油供应增长加快,市场供应偏紧的状况趋于缓解;石油需求将保持在较高水平,全年表观石油消费量将达到3.53亿吨,同比增长9%左右;国内成品油价格与国际石油价格关联程度将进一步加强。

China's crude oil and refined product output slowed down in the first five months of 2006 compared with the same period last year. Despite the rapid rise in oil imports and apparent oil consumption, actual consumption goes up more gradually and steadily, with the market price at all-time highs. The new policies released by China for up-stream oil production and trade, energy conservation and development of alternative sources of energy will have a profound effect on the Chinese oil market. The increase in actual oil consumption will still be less than apparent consumption for the rest of the year. Though oil demand will still be at a relatively high level, the gap between market demand and supply will be narrowed given the increase in oil supply. China's apparent oil consumption for the year will amount to 353 million tons, an increase of 9% on a year-over-year basis. Meanwhile, the correlation between the domestic refined oil price and the global oil price will further increase.