后凯恩斯学派的内生货币假说——中国的例证

Post Keynesian School′s Endogenous Money Hypothesis——Empirical Evidence from China

后凯恩斯学派的货币理论认为货币供给是内生的,对于货币供给是如何内生决定的这一问题,后凯恩斯学派内部存在着适应主义、结构主义、流动性偏好3种不同的观点。以中国为例检验内生货币假说,可以拓展内生货币假说在发展中国家的经验证据,运用EngleGranger两步法、误差校正模型、Granger因果检验等计量经济方法得出的实证检验结果表明,在研究期内存在从贷款到货币供应量的单向因果关系,所以中国的货币供应量本质上是内生的。长期内中国的GDP与货币供应量、贷款与基础货币、贷款与货币供应量货币乘数之间存在双向因果关系,短期内存在从贷款到货币供应量货币乘数的单向因果关系,这充分证实了结构主义的观点,但结果并未支持适应主义和流动性偏好的观点,这些结论对中国的宏观调控具有政策含义。

Money supply is endogenous in the Post Keynesian School＇s monetary theory, There are accommodationist, stucturalist and liquidity preference views on how money is determined endogenously within the Post Keynesian School. Examining the endogenous money hypothesis in the China＇s environment can extend endogenous money hypothesis＇s empirical evidence from the developing countries. Received with some econometric methods such as Engle-Granger two-step method, error correction model, Granger causality test, the empirical results show that unidirectional causality exists from the loan to M2 money supply over the study period, so M2 money supply is endogenous in nature in China. Furthermore, bidirectional causality exists between GDP and M2 money supply, between the loan and the money base, between the loan and M2 money multiplier in the long-run, and unidirectional causality exists from the loan to M2 money multiplier in the short-run in China, which fully affirm the stucturalist view. However, the results don＇t support the accommodationist view and liquidity preference view. These conclusions have some policy implications to China＇s macro control.