运用统计学方法提高复合标报价水平

Increase Offer Level for Integral Bidding by Adopting Statistics Method

研究目的:探讨复合标的构成要素以及这些要素不确定性的判断、取舍方法,为复合标投标报价提供计算方案。研究方法:运用统计学基本知识,把收集到的复合标报价数据分类、整理,制成样本,通过对样本数据的统计、对比、分析,找出各种数据分布规律,计算各种数据之间比例关系,对出现频率较高的数值和比例关系,进行重点研究,把它们放在其它同类样本内进行检算,从中找到能够普遍适用的代表值或中心值。总的研究思路是:从已知的各种数据中计算未知的概率,再从已知的概率中探索其它未知的数据。研究结果:对影响复合标报价有关的重要参数,提出了计算和认定方法,确定了报价区间、较好报价区间、最优报价区间的上线和下线范围。研究结论:利用本计算方法确定复合标最终报价时,必须收集足够多的投标报价样本,收集样本越多,报价越准确。用少量样本得出的数据,达不到预期的报价效果。

Research purposes： The exploration was made on the component elements of integral bidding and methods for assessing and accepting or rejecting the uncertainty of the elements so as to provide numerical procedure for offer for compound bidding.Research methods：The collected data on offer for integral bidding were sorted and made into specimens through using basic knowledge of statistics. The regularity of distribution of variable data was found and the proportionate relation among variable data was calculated through statistics, comparison and analysis of the data in specimen. The research was made mainly on the proportionate relation and numerical value that occurred frequently. The checking calculation was made to them by putting them in similar specimen in order to find out the universally typical value or central value. The general research thought was to know unknow probability through calculating known variable data and explore other unknown data from known probability.Research results： The methods of calculation and identity were presented for important parameters that influenced the offer for integral bidding and the scope of upper and down limits was defined for offer range, good offer range and optimum offer range.Research conclnsions：When determining the final offer for integral bidding by adopting computing method, the enough specimens had to be collected. More specimens you collected and more accurate offer you got. The expected result of offer could not be obtained with the data obtained from a few specimens.