泥石流灾害水文气象联合预报

The Prediction of Debris Flows Depending on Hydrology and Meteorology

由于降雨型泥石流是我国泥石流灾害的主要类型，所以以往对泥石流灾害的预测预报主要通过对雨量数据的分析来实现。但是由于雨量站记录雨量和灾害发生雨量并不一致，这就极大的影响了单纯依赖雨量数据预测预报的准确性。在分析环境因素影响的基础上，将水文和气象资料结合起来，用于泥石流灾害的预测预报。通过比较灾害发生前、发生时和发生后的河流洪峰流量、日降雨量和小时降雨量，发现洪峰流量和小时降雨量对灾害发生有很好的指示作用。经过在辽宁省岫岩满族自治县的试验，得到洪峰流量1800m^3／s和小时降雨量50-60mm这两个该县泥石流灾害发生临界值。结果表明水文和气象资料的联合应用，会大大改进泥石流灾害的预测预报效果。

A multidisciplinary approach is adopted in this paper in order to study the very complex phenomenon of rainfall triggered debris flows. Rainfalls are the main inducements of debris flows in China. So it＇s the most common method to predict debris flows through analyzing the relationship between rainfalls and debris flows. But because disaccords between the record of gauges and the actual rainfalls causing debris flows always exist, the veracity is greatly affected. In this paper, data of geomorphology, geology, hydrology and meteorology of Xiuyan of Liaoning province are collected. On the basis of investigation of the environmental background of disasters, the hydrological and meteorological behaviors which triggered debris flows are analyzed. The peak flows of rivers, day rainfalls and hour rainfalls before and after debris flows are different. Through comparing them it was found that hydrological behavior of a drainage area is a good indication of the day when debris flows will occur and meteorological behavior is a good indication of the hour. Critical peak flow （ 1 800 m^3/s） and critical rainfall （50-60 mm/h） of debris flows in Xiuyan are pointed out. Not with standing the simplifications introduced to carry out in this study, the proposed approach demonstrates the possibility of predicting debris flows through muhidisciplinary methods and hence the potential of improving debris flow risk assessment.