渐进转型与激进转型在初职进入和代内流动上的不同模式——市场转型分析模型应用于中国转型研究的修订

The Different Patterns Between the First Occupation Attainment and Intra-generation Mobility in Gradualist and Radicalist Transition: A revised model of market transition theory applied to the study of China's transformation

市场转型理论及其引发的争论均关注同一理论问题:即市场发育程度与社会分层秩序之间的关系;因之亦导致了通用的讨论和验证模型。正是基于这个通用的讨论和验证模型,韦尔霍文在2005年试图对市场转型理论进行综合分析。然而,本研究发现:转型理论的通用讨论模型在应用于中国的转型分析时,存在着重大的缺陷——缺少对不同所有制劳动力部门的控制,缺少对年龄与不同所有制劳动力部门的交互作用的控制。由于这两类重要变量的缺失,导致了在转型讨论中核心问题的实证研究结果出现了偏差。之所以如此,是因为中国的“渐进转型的变迁”与苏联及前东欧社会主义国家的“激进转型”的差异,使得中国渐进转型下的初职获得与职业流动的分层秩序有别于激进转型下的分层秩序。本文的理论观点,得到了在2003年中国综合社会调查所采集的数据的支持。

Market transition theory and its following debates share the same main thought which is the relationship between the market development and social stratification order. This thought leads to a general empirical research and debate model. Based on this general model, Verhoeven did a meta-analysis in 2005. However, this paper argues that the general empirical research model of market transition debate has defects when applied to China_the model lacks of the controlling the labor sectors with different ownership, and an interaction effect between age and the labor sectors with different ownership. The absence of these two important variables leads to the biased estimation in previous empirical research. This paper also argues that the general model need a revision when applied to China for the different market transition-gradualist transition in China and radicalist transition in Eastern Europewhich eventually leads to the difference in social stratification order between China and Eastern Europe in terms of the first job entry and intra-generation mobility. The data from GSS 2003 support the theoretical analysis of the paper.