主体关联性对贝叶斯推理概率估计的影响

A Study on the Influence of Subject Relevancy on Bayesian Reasoning

用贝叶斯推理问题为实验材料,探讨了主体关联性对贝叶斯推理概率估计的影响。结果表明,当估计的事件与主体有关时,被试对消极事件概率估计较低,对积极事件概率估计值;当估计的事件与主体无关时,被试对消极事件和积极事件的概率估计无显著差异。反应时分析表明,被试对消极事件的概率估计比对积极事件的概率估计时间显著地长,当消极事件与主体有关时概率估计时间就更长;而对积极事件的概率估计,与主体有关和与主体无关时反应时差异不显著。这表明,被试对消极事件的概率估计(特别是消极事件与己有关时)更为慎重。

Bayesian tasks were used in the present study to explore the influence of subject relevancy on Bayesian reasoning. The results showed： （1） The probability estimation was significantly lower for passive events than active events when the events in the tasks were related to the subjects; it showed no significant difference between the two conditions when the events were not related to the subjects. （2）For passive events in the tasks, the RT（response time） of probability estimation was significantly longer when the events were related to the subjects than when they were not; for active events, the RT of probability estimation showed no significant difference between the two conditions. It suggests that subjects are cautious of passive events related to themselves when they make probability estimation.