广西耕地保有量与粮食安全分析

Analysis of retaining cultivated land and food safety in Guangxi

从调研广西的耕地面积不断减少、质量不断降低、粮食播种面积及粮食总产量逐年减少出发,分析人口增长、社会经济发展以及粮食增产的制约因素,利用多种数学模型以及人口土地承载力方法预测广西未来耕地保有量、广西粮食安全对耕地保有量的需求,提出在符合土地利用总体规划前提下,对农业生产结构进行适时调整,通过土地开发整理增加耕地面积,加强农用地和基本农田管理,制订鼓励农民种粮的政策等措施,确保广西的粮食安全。

The cultivated land in Guangxi was investigated. It was found that plowland area and quality are decreasing. The planting area and the total yield of food are decreasing year by year as well. According to these facts, through analyzing the restriction factors on growing human population, the development of social economy and the increase consumption of food, mathematics model and the land population-bearing capacity method were applied to forecast the future retaining amount of cultivated land in Guangxi and the demands of plowland retaining amount by the food safety in Guangxi. Under the preconditions according with the overall planning of land utilization, the agricultural production structure would be timely regulated; the plowland area would be increased with developing and regulating use ways of land ; the managements of the land for agricultural production and basic farm land would be strengthened, and the strategy on encouraging farmers to plant cereal crops would be made to ensure the safety of food in Guangxi.