新型汇率机制下人民币升值压力累积与释放之选择

Cumulating or Release:the Policies for the Pressure of RMB Appreciation under New Exchange Rate Mechanism

目前人民币仍面临由自身价值提高、篮子货币贬值和市场升值预期复合而成的多重升值压力。面对压力,有名义升值、实际升值和压力累积等三种政策方案可供选择。从成本收益量化比较来看,名义升值净成本最低。因此,应在不超过升值压力幅度的范围内允许人民币名义汇率继续缓升,并采取相应的配套措施,以消除货币低估,实现内外均衡。

RMB is confronted with multi - pressures of appreciation at present. It comes from the increase of intrinsic value of RMB itself, the depreciation of basket - money and market appreciation expectation.In the face of the pressure, there are three schemes for selection： appreciation in nominal or real exchange rate or pressure cumulating.According to cost- benefit analysis, the cost of appreciation in nominal is the lowest. Therefore, in order to eliminate the devaluation and to realize interhal- external equilibrium, it is necessary to keep the nominal exchange rate of RMB increasing slowly in the bound of appreciation pressure and take corresponding measures.