中国贸易开放度的经验分析:以制造业为例

Openness to Trade in China's Manufacturing Sector

本文首先构造了一个标准化进口变量并预测该变量在自由贸易条件下的基准数值,然后利用回归模型确定实际标准化进口对基准的偏离程度,据此判断一个经济体的总体贸易开放度以及经济体间的双边贸易开放度。本文的研究表明,1987～1997年中国制造业的总体进口和出口开放度(以美国为参照)均较低;从双边意义上看,中国对主要贸易伙伴的贸易开放度低于这些贸易伙伴对中国的贸易开放度。本文的测算结果及其解释要考虑到标准化进口的折算标准、制成品的成本优势以及中国作为发展中国家的特征等因素。

We normalize import to predict its benchmark value under free trade,and pin down the deviation of real normalized import and gauge the unilateral and bilateral openness to trade.Our empirical result shows that,the unilateral openness to trade in China's manufactures from 1987 to 1997 is significantly low in comparison with the US but it shows the trend of increasing.Bilaterally,China's normalized imports from major partners are much less than these countries' normalized imports from China.Our empirical results and their interpretations rely heavily on the chosen exchange rate,the cost advantage and the impact of China's status as a developing country.