独联体以及影响其走向的内部因素分析

An Analysis of CIS and the Internal Factors Affecting its Development

本文主要通过对近年来发生在独联体的重大事件和活动的分析,从内部影响因素的角度出发,预测独联体的未来走向。本文认为,作为区域组织的独联体,由于其成员国缺乏必要的区域意识,正出现分裂趋势;出于国家对外战略的需要,在对独联体现状进行反思后,俄罗斯决定确定新的战略,开展以经济、安全利益为核心的一体化活动,为区域政治一体化重打基础。在上述因素的共同作用下,独联体未来走向的最大可能,是在保有独联体的名义下,成员国各取所需,参加其中的经济或安全组织,呈现“速度各异、层次不同的一体化”局面。

Analyzing its major events and activities in recent years and proceeding from the angle of its internal factors, the article forecasts the future orientation of the CIS. It is held that as a regional organization, CIS is tending to break up due to the lack of a necessary regional awareness among the member states, and that out of state foreign strategic needs, Russia will decide on a new strategy after making refelctions on the status quo of the CIS. Conducting integral activities focusing on economic and seurity interests, it will lay foundation for regional political integration. With the joint effects of the factors mentioned above, the CIS will most probably orient itself towards a pattern of “integrity with varying speeds and at different levels”,under which the CIS, while keeping its title unchanged, will adopt an approach of to each member state according to its own needs with the member states participating in the economic or security organizations.