基于卡尔曼滤波的SARS疫情预测

Prediction of SARS Epidemic Based on Kalman Filter

为了能够科学、准确地预测SARS疫情,论文首先根据SARS的传播特点,建立了含有时滞项的微分方程模型,然后应用卡尔曼滤波理论于所建模型,进行疫情预测。经仿真发现,其预测结果和疫情实际数据吻合较好。该方法具有很高的预测精度,为SARS疫情预测提供了一种新的思路。

To predict SARS epidemic scientifically,a differential equation model with time delay is set up based on the characteristic of SARS,then Kalman Filtering theory is applied to predict SARS epidemic.The simulated results agree well with the reported epidemic data,which shows that the method has higher precision.It＇s a new method for SARS epidemic prediction.