美国经常项目赤字的可持续性分析——基于东亚地区与美国之间的特殊融资安排视角被引量：13

An Analysis of Sustainability of US Current Account Deficits——Perspective from a Special Financial Arrangement between East Asia and US

原文传递

导出

摘要一国经常项目赤字只有获得足够资金支持才能维持,基于此文将美国经常项目赤字可持续性问题转化为能否稳定地获得外源性融资的问题。文章从供给和需求角度探讨了美国与东亚地区之间特殊融资安排的形成与稳定性问题,并用两种方法估计了美国经常项目赤字可持续的必要条件及调整的时间。本文认为国际金融体系下美元霸权和东亚地区内需不足导致了东亚地区的资金供给,美国消费主导型经济导致经常项目赤字进而引致资金的需求,供求之间能达到短期均衡。但是由于制度安排的缺陷,这种特殊的融资安排长期必然走向崩溃。届时美国赤字调整不可避免,中国应采取措施避免美国经常项目赤字调整带来的风险。 Current account deficits are sustainable only if it was adequately financed. Thereby, this paper translated the problem concerning sustainability of current account deficits into the issue of stability of external financing. Then, this paper discussed the special financing arrangement between East Asia and US, hence after, we further discussed the necessary conditions for the ＂ sustainability＂ and timing of adjusting deficits. This paper held that East Asia becomes financial supplier because of dollar hegemony under current international financial system and insufficient domestic demand in East Asian countries, US becomes financial demander due to the consumption-led growth. The demand and supply can strike a balance in short run, but this special financial arrangement dooms to collapse for its institutional weakness, and US has to adjust its currents account deficits passively.

作者陈奉先涂万春

机构地区西南财经大学金融学院西南财经大学经济学院

出处《国际金融研究》 CSSCI 北大核心 2006年第8期41-49,共9页 Studies of International Finance

关键词美国经常项目赤字可持续性影响 America Current Account Deficits Sustainability.

分类号 F831 [经济管理—金融学]

引文网络
相关文献

参考文献17

1Blanchard, O., F. Giavazzi, and F. Sa (2005) "The U.S. Current Account and the Dollar" MIT Working Paper 0502.
2Cline, W., 2005, The United States as a Debtor Nation: Risks and Policy Response (Washington: Center for Global Development and Institute for International Economics), forthcoming.
3Dooley, M., D. Folkerts-Landau and P. Gather (2003) "An Essay on the Revived Bretton Woods System" NBER Working Paper No. 9971, September.
4Dooley, M., D. Folkerts-Landau and P. Garber (2004a) The Revived Bretton Woods System: The Effects of Periphery Intervention and Reserve Management on Interest Bates & Exchange Bates in Center Countries NBER Working Paper No.10332, March.
5Dcoley, M., Folkerts-Landau, D., and Gather, P., (2004b), The U.S. current account deficit and economic development: Collateral for a total return swap, NBER working paper 10727.
6Eichengreen, B. (2004) Global Imbalances and the Lessons of Bretton Woods. NBER Working Paper No. 10497, May.
7Ericsson, Neil R.Marquez, Jaime, .Encompassing the forecast of balance models. Review of Economics & Statistics;Feb93, Vol. 75 Issue 1, p19-31.
8Ferguson, B., 2005, "U.S. Current Account Deficit: Causes and Consequences," Remarks to the Economics Club of the University of North Carolina. (http://www.federalreserve.gov/boarddocs/speeches/2005/20050420/default.htm)
9Greenspan, A., 2005, "Globalization,"Remarks to the Council on Foreign Relations.( http://www.federalreserve.gov/boarddocs/speeches/2005/2005031 O/default.htm.)
10McKinnon, R. and G. Schnabl (2004) . The East Asian Dollar Standard, Fear of Floating, and Original Sin. Reviewof Development Economics Aug, Vol. 8 Issue 3, p331-360.

二级参考文献44

1施建淮.怎样正确分析美国经常项目逆差[J].国际经济评论,2005(4):5-10. 被引量：37
2拉托.Foreign Policy Association主办会议上的演讲（会议在纽约召开）[Z].,2005年2月23日..
3罗杰.Credit Suisse First Boston主办会议上的演讲（会议在中国香港召开）[Z].,2005年3月15日..
4罗纳德·I·麦金农.《美元本位下的汇率—东亚高储蓄两难》[M].中国金融出版社,2005年..
5罗伯特·特里芬.《黄金与美元危机-自由兑换的未来》[M].商务印书馆,(1961)1997年12月..
6Croke, Hilary Steven B. Kamin, and Sylvain Leduc (2005): "Financial Market Developments and Economic Activity during Current Account Adjustments in Industrial Economies," Discussion Paper 2005-827 (Washington: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, February).
7Cooper, Rechard N. (2005): "Living with Global Imbalances", Institute for International Economics: Policy Briefs, PB05-3, 2005. www.iie.com.
8Deutche Bank: "The US Current Account Deficit: Collateral for a Total Return Swap", http://www.frbsf.org/economics/conferences/0502.
9Dooley, Michael P., David Folkerts and Landau Peter M. Garber (2004), "The US Current Account Deficit and Economic Development: Collateral for a Total Return Swap", NBER Working Paper No. 10727.
10Edwin M. Truman (2004), "Budget and External Deficits: Not Twins but the Same Family," paper presented at the Annual Research Conference, held at the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, June 14-16.