西北太平洋热带气旋强度统计释用预报方法研究

Statistical Prediction Scheme of Tropical Cyclone Intensity in Northwest Pacific

为了提高西北太平洋地区热带气旋(TC)强度预报准确率,在气候持续预报方法基础上,考虑气候持续性因子、天气因子、卫星资料因子,以TC强度变化为预报对象,运用逐步回归统计方法,建立西北太平洋地区24、48、72小时TC强度预报方程。通过不同的分海区试验(远海区域、华东近海、华南近海),证明回归结果较好。逐一分析选入因子发现:气候持续性因子在方程中相当重要;同时对远海区域和华东近海而言,海温影响也不容忽视,对华南近海而言,反映动力强迫作用的因素也较为重要。卫星资料的加入,对回归结果略有改进。用“刀切法”作独立样本检验,与气候持续法比较,预报误差明显减小。

A stepwise regression method with tropical cyclone intensity change as the dependent variable is developed on the basis of the climatology and persistence （CLIPER） forecast scheme. The predictors are involved in climatology persistence, synoptic predictors, infrared satellite data. Regression is performed on 24-, 48-, 72-hour forecasts for three different sea areas in Northwest Pacific. The climatology persistence predictors as important factors are chosen in regression equations, another predictors are some synoptic predictors with the dynamical forcing effect and the maximum potential intensity （MPI） which is calculated by sea surface temperature. The independence test by a jackknife procedure shows an improvement over CLIPER scheme. Infrared satellite predictors could improve the prediction accuracy on some forecast interval.