扎兰屯地区近30年气象条件变化及与作物产量的关系

Relationship between Crops Output and Changes of Meteorological Conditions in Zhalantun Area for Recent 30 Years

利用扎兰屯地区1971—2000年的温度和降水资料,分析大于等于0℃、10℃、15℃、20℃活动积温的变化及各界限温度持续期间降水的变化,发现它们都呈上升趋势。用10年直线滑动平均法对扎兰屯地区作物产量资料进行处理,分离出趋势产量和气象产量,计算各气象因子与气象产量的相关系数,分析气象因子对产量的影响。玉米和大豆产量与积温关系较大,积温增加使产量增加;马铃薯和小麦产量则与降水量关系较大,降水增多会使产量降低。

Using the data of temperature and rainfall in Zhalantun area from 1971 to 2000, the change of active accumulated temperatures more than or equal to 0℃, 10℃, 15℃, 20℃ and the precipitation in every critical temperature continuous period are analyzed. It is found that they appear the rising tendency. Based on the method of 10-year moving average, the data of crops output in zhalantun area is disposed to separate the tendency output and the meteorological output, and calculate the correlation between various meteorological factors and the meteorological output in order to analyze the influence of the meteorological factors on output. The corn and the soybean output have well relationship to the accumulated temperature, the increasing of the accumulated temperature make the output increase. On the other hand, the correlation between potato and wheat output and the rainfall is obvious, the precipitation increasing can cause the less output.