全国多环芳烃排放的时空变异特征

Spatial and Temporal Variations of Polycyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbons Emission in China

根据排放因子和相关排放活动的统计资料,分析了全国PAHs排放的空间分布和时间变异特征,并预测未来16年间全国PAHs的年排放量。结果表明,1999年全国单位GDP排放量和人均年排放量的总体趋势均表现为从西北部和北部向东南沿海逐渐减少;而单位面积年排放量则在中部和东部较高,西部与东南沿海较低。不同排放源的贡献比例存在显著的地区差异。全国PAHs年排放量在1980—1988年持续上升,1988—1996年则相对稳定在1.0～1.1万t,1996年以后因排放因子较高的非工业燃煤用量大幅减少而连续下降至1980年水平。考虑未来经济和能源结构调整以及国家政策的变化,至2020年全国PAHs年排放量预计将达到1.3～1.7万t。

Based on emission factors and corresponding statistics of emission activities, the temporal and spatial variations of PAHs emission in China were analyzed, and Chinese annual PAHs emission in the future 16 years was estimated. The results showed that in 1999, both per capita emission and per GDP emission decreased from northwest and north to south of China, while per square kilometer emission reached relatively high levels in central section and east of China. In addition, the contributions of various sources to total PAHs emission also exhibited significant regional differences. During 1980 to 1988, annual PAHs emission in China kept increasing rapidly, and then remained relative- ly stable between 10 000 t and 11 000 t until 1996; afterwards it diminished continuously to the level of 1980, mainly due to a substantial re- duction in non-industrial coal combustion with high PAHs emission factor. With consideration of possible changes in economic and energy structures, as well as in governmental policies, the prediction of China annual PAHs emission in 2020 will be around 13 000 t to 17 000 t.