马尾松人工林生长动态预测与密度决策的支持模型研究

Study on Supporting Models for Predicting Growth Dynamic and Deciding Density for Masson Pine Plantation

应用系统工程的方法研究马尾松人工林生长动态预测与密度决策的支持模型，该模型由一系列生长模型组成，可动态预测林分生长过程以及筛选优化合理经营密度，从而使林分始终处于较优生长空间状态，达到速生、丰产、优质、高效的目标．模型用模外２０块样地资料对马尾松人工林单木生长模型进行Ｆ检验和Ｕ检验，两种结果表明，模型的预测精度较高，可在生产中应用．

This paper use methods of system engineering to build the supporting models for predicting growth dynamic and deciding density for masson pine plantation, which are composed by a series of growth models, and can predict the stand growth and optimize the stand density, so that the stands grow optimistically and achieve fast-growing, high-yeild, high-quality and high-benefit aim. Meanwhile, the individual growth models of masson pine plantation are tested with 20 surveyed plots data by means of F-test and Utest, the results show that the accuracy of prediction is higher, therefore, the models can be used in forest management.