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地震危险性评价中余震活动的影响—以邢台余震区为例 被引量:3

The affection of aftershock activity in seismic risk evaluation —taking Xingtai aftershock area as example
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摘要 目前通用的地震危险性模型在确定有关地震活动性参数时都强调删除余震,其理由是因为所应用的地震活动模型是泊松模型。但是在现实的地震灾害中,有些是因为余震活动所引起的。忽略余震活动的影响,可能会低估某些区域的地震危险。本文提出考虑余震活动的地震危险性分析模型,并从此模型出发,以邢台地震为例,对余震区内、余震区边界和余震区外等场点计算了考虑余震活动的地震危险性结果,同时,在原有模型的基础上,只改变余震区所处的潜在震源区的地震年发生率,计算相同场点的地震危险性结果,并把这两个结果与不考虑余震活动的结果进行比较,在此基础上讨论在某些区域考虑余震活动的必要性。 At present, the general methods to determine seismicity parameters in seismic risk model all emphasize to delete aftershocks. The reason is that the seismicity model used is Poisson model. But in usual, some seismic disasters are caused just by aftershocks, it may underestimate the seismic risk to delete aftershocks. Here we presented a seismic risk analysis model, in which aftershocks is included. Take Xingtai earthquake as example, we calculated the seismic risk for some sites in and out the aftershock region as well as its boundary with this model. Based on this model, changing the annual earthquake occurrence rate in the same region, we calculated the seismic risk again. Compared the two results with the results that did not consider aftershocks, it shows that it is necessary to consider aftershock activity in some regions.
出处 《华北地震科学》 2006年第2期46-49,共4页 North China Earthquake Sciences
关键词 地震危险性 泊松模型 余震 seismic risk Poisson model aftershock
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参考文献8

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