浙江省粮食单产影响因素分析

Analysis of Per Unit Area Grain Yield and Influencing Factors in Zhejiang Province

对近10年来浙江省粮食单产历史演变分析表明,粮食单产总体呈增长趋势。运用柯布—道格拉斯生产函数,对20世纪90年代以来全省粮食单产的主要影响因素进行了分时段分析,结果表明:1990—1997年期间,农业科技投入的贡献最大,达17.64%;1998—2000年期间,农业科技投入的贡献继续保持第一,为9.68%;2001—2004年期间,成灾面积扩大对粮食单产增速放慢所起的作用最大,达48.94%;从整体来看,1990—2004年期间,农业科技投入在推动粮食单产增长过程中的贡献最大,达44.50%。从而得出依靠农业科技进步,将是继续提高浙江粮食综合生产能力的主要途径和手段。

According to the per unit area grain yield data from 1993 to 2004, it was clear that per unit area grain yield took on an increasing trend on the whole. By Cobb-Douglas production function, the factors were analyzed of per unit area grain yield in whole province since 1990s.The result indicated that during the year of 1990-1997 and 1998-2000 the biggest contribution on increasing per unit area grain yield was the devotion of agricultural science and technology, its value was respectively 17.64% and 9.68%; during the year 2001-2004 the stricken area was the mostly factor on decreasing per unit area grain yield, and the value was 48.94%. From the whole trend, the devotion of agricultural science and technology was the most important factors for driving per unit area grain yield, its value was 44.50%. Thereby, relying on agricultural scientific progress to continuously increase the ability for grain integrative production will be the primary instrument and channel.