新疆农业信贷与农业总产值的一个协整分析

A Co-integration Study on Relationship between Xinjiang Agriculture Credit and Agriculture Product

利用1991—2004年的数据,对新疆农业总产值与农业信贷余额之间的关系做出了实证分析,以便对过去十几年来农业信贷投入的效率做出评价。基于协整分析并利用Granger因果关系检验对新疆农业总产值与农业信贷之间关系进行研究。结果表明,在选取的样本区间内,新疆农业总产值与农业信贷存在协整关系,即长期均衡关系。新疆农业信贷投入对农业总产值有着正向作用,长期弹性达43.96%。Granger因果关系检验表明,农业信贷不是新疆农业总产值的Granger原因,说明农业信贷虽然对新疆农业总产值有正向作用,但还没有成为重要影响因素。

Making an empirical study on the relationship between Xinjiang Agriculture Credit and Agriculture Product by using the data from 1991 to 2004 to appraise the efficiency of bank .Based on the ways of Co-integration and Granger causality tests, the results are that Xinjiang Agriculture Credit is Cointegration with Agriculture Product; Xinjiang Agriculture Credit has closely relationship with Agriculture Product, but it doesn＇t become the important factor to support Agriculture Product.