蠕变－样条联合模型及其在滑坡时间预报中的应用

A CREEP SPLNE COMBINED MODEL AND ITS APPLICATION TO THE TIME PREDICTION OF LANDSLIDES

根据滑坡演化的一般规律并考虑到外动力因素对斜坡变形破坏的影响，提出了一种蠕变与样条的联合模型。通过新滩滑坡和链子崖危岩体的实例分析，采用蠕变－样条联合模型进行滑坡位移数据分析和临滑时间预报。初步研究表明。

According to the general regularity of evolution of landslides,and considering the effect of external agents on the deformation and failure of slopes,a creep spline combined model is proposed in this paper.This model is adopted to analyse the displacement data and to predict the happenning time of the landslide through the case study of Xintan landslide and Lianzhiya unstable rock mass.The preliminary studies show that the proposed model,as compared with others,has advantages of being convenient and accurate.