脱钩的粮食直接补贴政策有效性研究——基于安徽省水稻产区的数据

The Effect of the Direct Grain Subsidy in a Disconnected form——Based on the Data from Rice Producing Area in Anhui Province

脱钩的粮食直接补贴对农业生产产生的主要是间接影响:给予农民的与其种植品种无关的补贴可以冲减农产品价格波动可能带来的损失,从而在一定程度上消除农民的恐惧心理,鼓励他们按市场的比较收益做出种植决策。但根据我们的实地调查,农民对水稻种植风险不够敏感,故直接补贴政策对水稻种植的影响缺乏作用的基础,而通过计量分析发现农民对经济作物种植的不同风险偏好与其做出的种植决策没有必然联系,所以政策对经济作物种植也不会具有明显的促进作用。

The disconnected form of the direct grain subsidy generally has the indirect influence on the agriculture production. Whatever the peasantry grows, this form of subsidy may reduce the possible loss if the products go down in the future. As a result, the peasantry makes more rational decisions depending on the comparative income on the market without fewer worries about the price fluctuation. However, an investigation shows that most of the peasantries are not very sensitive to the risk of the grain production; on the other hand, when growing cash crops, a econometric model based on the investigation＇ s data argues that there is no certain relationship between different attitudes of risk and different cultivated decisions. Therefore, the direct grain subsidy has little effect on the agriculture production.