电力系统风险评估方法和应用实例研究

Models and methods applied to risk assessment of power systems

介绍一种新的可用于电力系统规划、设计、运行及维护领域风险评估的方法。该方法强调工程应用,探讨电力系统的实际问题。根据规划、运行、维修和资产管理方面的不同要求,发展特定的概念、针对性的方法和实施步骤,如提出元件老化失效模型、共因停运的分离模型及元件组停运模型等新概念。通过对加拿大某城市电力系统扩建规划实例的分析,说明如何进行具体工程的可靠性概率评估,以达到资源的最佳配置,使系统风险保持在目标水平。

A new approach to evaluate power system risk in planning, design, operation and maintenance was introduced in this paper. Considering engineering applications, some new concepts and solutions were proposed in this approach, such as aging failure model, individual models for common cause outages, models for a component-group outage, etc. Following a thorough discussion of modeling and methodology with a real-life example about the power system planning of a Canadian city, it could be shown how to keep risk at targeted levels