道路平整度指数值时空动态变形模型与预报方法

Time and Space Dynamic State Change Model and Forecast Method about Highway International Roughness Index

针对各局部单元路面贫信息条件下的平整度IRI值变化的短数据序列,将单点的GM(1,1)预测模型扩展为系统空间的多点非线性动态变形预测模型,使得路面平整度变形分析预报从单点的粗旷型分析转向多点的空间整体变形分析成为可能。通过运用模糊聚类分析理论,采用路基地质等因素定性分析与路面平整度IRI值变化定量分析相结合的方法,科学合理地划分道路路面平整度变形体块。并以实例给出了建立某一级公路部分路面平整度变形体整体变形预报模型的过程。

Using short data series of international roughness index （IRI） changed values of every local unit pavement under lacking information, it is possible for the analysis and forecast of pavement roughness to be improved from coarse single point to multiple points of system space and entirety, with forecast model of single point developed to time and space multiple points non-linear dynamic state change forecast model. Using fuzzy cluster analysis and qualitative analysis method considering roadbed geological structure factor etc combined with quantitative analysis of international roughness index （IRI） changed values of every local unit pavement, pavement roughness change block regions of road are delimited scientificly. An example is given to demonstrate the time and space dynamic state change model and forecast method about pavement roughness change block in local road pavement of particular grade.