基于集对分析理论的水电站中长期风险调度问题研究

Mid-and Long-Term Risk Dispatching of Hydropower System Based on Set-Pair Analysis Theory

解决水电站中长期风险调度问题,在电力市场环境下显得尤为必要。在纵观国内外水电站中长期风险调度问题研究现状的基础上,应用集对分析理论对市场环境下水电站中长期调度的风险问题进行具体分析,对径流、发电用水和电价进行同异反描述,建立了基于集对分析理论的中长期风险调度模型,并用一次二阶矩法进行求解,可以提供效益与风险的定量关系。同时,对中长期风险调度进行了基于不确定数i的敏感性分析,给出了风险因子变化时所引起的发电收入变化幅度。实例研究表明了该方法的可行性与有效性。

It is fearfully important to study power generation risk dispatching of hydropower stations under the condition of electricity marketing. Having reviewed the research state of mid- and long-term risk dispatching of hydropower station, this paper describes the uniform-different-contrary characteristics of flow, generation water and power price, and presents a model of mid- and long-term risk dispatching based on set-pair analysis. By using the method of firstorder second order moment, probability risk-analysis gets the quantificational relation between benefit and risk. At the same time, sensitivity analysis （based on uncertain number i） provides the changing scope of generation income, which is caused by alterable risk genes. The case study shows feasibility and validity of the model.