人的失误理论研究进展

Research Progress in Theory of Human Error

人的失误理论研究已进入结合认知心理学并以人的失误动态过程为研究热点的阶段。笔者回顾了人的失误理论研究的进展,讨论了相关的人的认知行为类型、认知失误的基本概念和人的失误模型。例如适用于不同情景和应用条件的几种模型:刺激-调制-响应(S-O-R)模型;失误的决策阶梯(Step-ladder)模型;通用GEMS模型以及Worledge认知模型。由于人的行为的复杂性和难以预测性造成了人的可靠性分析(HRA)的困难,因此,对人的行为的深入了解必须从人的行为特性及其规律性入手,将人的可靠性分析与行为科学理论结合起来,揭示人的失误发生的内在规律。与此同时,重点分析了概率安全评价技术(PSA)中如何对人的失误事件进行定量估计;如何考虑人的心理因素影响的几种重要的人的失误理论模型,并对今后这该领域中的研究方向进行了讨论。

The study of theory of human error has advanced in the cognitive psychology; it means the study comes to a new phase. The research progress of the theory of human error is reviewed. Relevant categorization of ccgnitive behavior, the basic concept of ccgnitive error and the models of human error are discussed such as S-O-R model, step-ladder model, GEMS modtel and Worledge ccgnitive model fitted for different scenes and condititions. Due to the ccrnplexity of human behavior and difficulty in predictability, the human reliability analysis （HRA） becomes very hard. In order to understand human behavior in depth, it is necessary to krow the characteristics of human behavior and their regularity and to combine the reliability analysis with behavior science to reveal intrinsic occurrence rule of human error. At the same time,how to quantitatively estimate the incident caused by human error in the probabilistic safety assessment （PSA） is emphatically analyzed. Some available human error models considering human psycholcgical factors and potential research trend in future are discussed.