人民币实际汇率之谜(1979—2005)——基于事实比较和文献述评的观察

The Puzzle of Renminbi Real Exchange Rate(1979—2005)

作为系统探讨人民币实际汇率问题的一项基础性工作，本文从国际比较经验角度讨论改革开放以来人民币实际汇率走势的形态独特性，通过系统述评有关人民币实际汇率文献来考察这一对象的认识挑战性，由此提出“人民币实际汇率之谜”的观察，并筒略评论破解这一谜题现象所需要的分析视角调整。

This paper observes ＂the puzzle of Renminbi＇s （RMB） real exchange rate＂ through two stages of investigation. On the basis of measurement of RMB＇s real exchange rate since the late 1970s, it observes the distinct evolving pattern of RMB＇s real exchange rate during the period of rapid economic growth in China＇s through international comparison with the performance of real exchanges of currencies for selected economies during theirprocess of catch-up. It then highlights the academic challenges with regard to explaining the phenomenon through systematic review of the literature on the subject. The paper also briefly discusses the required in research agenda for resolving the observed puzzle.