耕地减少对经济增长贡献的实证分析——以浙江省为例

The Positive Analysis of Contribution of Arable Land Loss to Economic Development——A Study of Zhejiang

基于增长经济学和动态经济学理论构建分布滞后模型,实证分析了浙江耕地减少对经济增长和对提供非农劳动力的贡献情况。结果表明,耕地被占用后第3-4年才对经济增长表现出显著的作用,两者呈明显的倒“U”型关系,耕地减少对提供非农劳动力的作用是明显的。最后,建议对土地管理实施“过程管理"和“永续经营”,对劳动力加快转移并提供“转业”培训。

Based on Development Economics and Dynamic Economics, this paper sets up Lag Model and empirically analyzes the contribution of Zhejiang arable land loss to economic development and the contribution of the loss to offer non-agricultural labor. Empirical results show that arable land loss will affect economic development distinctly only in 3 to 4 years and the relationship between arable land loss and economic development shows the type of U remarkably. The contribution of Zhejiang arable land loss to offer non-agricultural labor is very distinctly. Finally, suggestions have been made that in order to administer land effectively, Process Management and Sustain Management should be applied and that in order to transfer agricultural labor, industrialization and urbanization should be quickened and transferring training should be offered by local governments.