出口、投资与中国的经济增长——基于协整的实证分析

Export,Investment and China's Economic Growth——based on empirical analysis on Cointegration

根据协整理论，利用1978—2003年的年度经济数据对中国出口、投资和经济增长的关系进行了实证分析。实证结果表明：无论在长期还是短期，中国的经济增长和投资增长均是出口增长的Granger原因；反过来，出口增长也是经济增长和投资增长的Granger原因。从因果关系的影响力度来看，市场驱动与投资驱动的经济增长假说相对于出口驱动的经济增长假说，对中国经济实际增长情形的描述更为恰当。

The paper conducts an empirical investigation of the relationships among export growth, investment growth and China＇ s economic growth based on the theory of cointegration, utilizing annual data from 1978 to 2003.The results show that whether in the long - run or in the short-rtm,economic growth and investment growth Granger cause export growth, at the same time, export growth Granger cause investment growth and economic growth. But in terms of strength of causal relationship, market - driven and investment - driven growth hypothesis are more appropriate to depict the actual growth path of China.