影响我国医疗卫生需求的多因素实证分析——基于岭回归法

Multi-factors Empirical analysis of health demands in china——Based on Ridge Regression

本文根据经济学原理,选取影响医疗卫生需求的八个具有代表性变量。采用岭回归法,通过SAS9．0统计软件对我国1994-2003年间的统计数据建立医疗卫生需求模型,得出：医疗卫生需求与城镇居民人均可支配收入、城镇居民医疗保健价格指数、人口调整数、普通高等学校每年毕业人数、政府预算卫生支出、医疗机构数、传染病发病率以及平均预期寿命均为同方向变化,但弹性系数相差较大。随后,对这一结果进行了成因分析,最后提出了相应的政策建议。

Eight typical variables are selected based on the economics theories in this paper, and the model of health demand in china based on empirical data between 1994 and 2003 is established with the Ridge Regression using SAS9.0 statistic software. The following conclusions are drawn： the demand of medical care have a same changing direction with the disposable income of urban residents, the price index of medical ＆ health care for urban residents.the adjusted population,the number of graduates in regular higher education . the government health expenditure, the number of health institutions.the incidence of infectious diseases and the average life expectancy, but the elastic coefficient are quite different. Furthermore, an analysis on the reasons of the conclusions is presented, and some measures are given in the end.