绥化市可持续发展系统的趋势分析

Analysis on Trend of Sustainable Development of Suihua City

在全面性、简明性和系统性的基础上，建立了绥化市可持续发展趋势评价的指标体系，并对该区域1990—2002年的可持续发展趋势和可持续发展系统能力进行了定量评价。趋势评价指在确定的指标体系下，采用复杂系统综合评价的方法分析区域可持续发展系统各方面的综合发展的状况、趋势和可持续发展的程度或水平，并用相应测度和标准去衡量或者比较。绥化市可持续发展的趋势分析结果表明，该市的经济和社会发展状态稳定，人口发展、环境污染和资源占有趋势一直呈现比较波动的状态，特别是资源占有指数在2000年才呈现恢复上升的趋势．究其原因主要在于2000年之前的“高消耗”的传统经济发展模式。环境一发展综合指数与资源一发展综合指数有着相同的变化趋势，20世纪90年代初，因为环境污染和资源消耗都比较严重，同时社会经济发展水平都比较低造成二者数值都比较高。1998年后，逐渐进入环境质量提高，资源消耗量下降的时期，环境污染、资源消耗与发展的综合指数越来越低，同时也可以说明绥化市的可持续发展的能力在不断提高。

The main content of estimation of sustainable development is to ensure human load stay within global carrying capacity. Index system of sustainable development assessment is one of part of judge and decision system. In the paper, we select 42 indexes of sustainable system complying to comprehensive, compendious and systemic principle. Then,we assessed sustainable trend and sustainable ability of the region in 1990 -2002. The trend evaluation is to adopt the method of complicated comprehensive evaluation in order to analyse the state,trend, degree and level of comprehensive development of region sustainable development system, and to assay and compare with corresponding standard. According to result of judging, development of economy and society is stead,and environment pollution and resources occupation is fluctuant, especially resources occupation exponential presented a accending trend in 2000. The reason is traditional economic development model has high flow rate. Environment development synthesion index and resources development synthesion index that can reflect relation of environment pollution and resources occupation present the same trend. In the beginning of 1990＇s in 20 centuries, because the condition of pollution of the environment and resources consume is more serious, and social economic develop levels in the meantime is lower, two indexes are higher. After 1998, the period of environment quality exalted gradually and the resources depletion descendence came, so the index r was more and more low. That show sustainable development ability to be raising continuously. Sustainble development ability evaluation is to analyse condition and obstacle of sustainable development with analysing relation and effect of the system state in order to evaluate sustainable development ability and the potential. With evaluation, it is expressed：1 ）Resources depletion and pollution of the environment for 1993 - 1996, 2000 and 2002 make very small pressure to sustainable development, and the system of sustainble development ability grade was high. 2） Sustainable development of resources environment ability in 1992 and 1993 was common, and the pressure was medium. 3 ）In 1998 and 1999, sustainable development ability of resources environmental was weaker. 4） In 2000 - 2002 sustainable development ability can be raised continuously. In 2002,the comprehensive ability attain the best state.