油气藏评价项目风险分析评价体系探讨

Discussion of Risk Analysis and Assessment System of Petroleum Reservoir Evaluation Projects

美国项目管理协会（PMI）提出的项目风险管理体系在国际项目管理中应用广泛。本文在引入PMI风险管理体系的同时，根据油气藏评价项目特点，结合项目风险评价方法，初步形成油气评价项目风险分析评价体系，并将该体系应用到榆林南天然气评价勘探项目之中。在具体风险分析中，根据长庆天然气评价勘探项目实践，利用SWOT分析及德菲尔等方法，完成项目风险识别及定性分析；在定量风险分析中引入了蒙特卡罗及三级风险等评价方法，同时开展了风险价值评价。取得了较好效果。

A project risk management theory proposed by the Project Management Imtimte （PMI） is widely used in the international project management. On the basis of introduction of PMI＇s project risk management theory, a risk analysis and assessment system of petroleum reservoir evaluation projects is put forward in the paper according to the characteristics of reservoir evaluation projects, and with combination of project risk assessment methods. The system is used in the exploration project of South Yulin natural gas appraisement. In the light of the practice of exploration project of Changqing natural gas appraisement, project risk identification and qualitative risk analysis are completed by using the SWOT analysis and Delphi Technique. The Monte Carlo and three level risk analysis techniques are introduced into the quantitative risk analysis. At the same time risk value assessment is carried out. Good results are obtained.