GRAPES中尺度模式对2005年长江流域重大灾害性降水天气过程预报性能的检验分析

VALIDATION OF 2005 HEAVY RAIN EVENTS OVER THE YANGTZE RIVER BASIN FORECAST BY GRAPES

GRAPES是中国新一代具有自主知识产权的中尺度数值天气预报模式。使用在国家气象中心业务运行的最新版本的GRAPES模式、常规观测资料以及NCEP分析资料(1°×1°),对2005年主汛期发生在长江流域的重要降水天气过程进行了模拟和检验,重点分析了该模式对这一地区西风带影响系统的预报能力及可信度,从而得到GRAPES模式对于2005年长江流域重大灾害性降水天气预报性能的初步评价,并对该模式的应用及进一步改进提供一些有意义的参考依据。

GRAPES （Global/Regional Assimilation and Prediction System） is a new generation of mesoscale weather forecast model in China. By comparing model prediction with observation, the model ability in predicting heavy rain events, together with the governing weather systems, over the Yangtze River Basin in 2005, is validated in the paper. The results show a generally good performance of the model in the prediction. The work will be helpful in better utilizing the model results in conventional weather prediction, as well as in providing valuable suggestions to further improvement of the model.