我国通货膨胀与通货紧缩的非线性转换

Nonlinear Transition between Inflation Expansion and Deflation in China

本文应用ESTAR模型对我国通胀的非线性调节和通胀与通缩的非线性转换进行实证研究,研究结果表明我国通货膨胀具有显著的非线性调节,通胀与通缩的转换具有显著的非线性指数转换的特征,这种转换发生在滞后二期,转换的速度显著;我国通胀具有整体稳定性和局部非稳定性,由于我国通胀与通缩的临界水平c为3.3个百分点,表明我国通胀在3%左右的水平上处于非稳定运行状态;进一步,本文所估计的指数转换函数和c,基本准确地揭示了我国通胀的动态随机周期行为特征。本文的结论表明我国货币政策具有总体有效性和相机适宜性。

This paper applies the ESTAR model to conduct an empirical study for Chinese inflation. The results show that there is nonlinear exponential transition between the inflation and deflation, and the transition location takes place in lagged two periods and adjustment speed is quick and significant; furthermore the middle value of the inflation and deflation is 3.3% . Based on above results and Chinese background, this paper also describes dynamic cyclical behavior of the inflation. The conclusions imply that the macroeconomic policies of China are generally efficient.