中国技术进步贡献率的度量与分解

Estimating and Decomposing the Contribution of Technical Change in China

本文在分析索洛余值法缺陷的基础上,以新增长理论为理论背景,结合中国经济发展的现实,将产业结构变动、资本空间集聚、人力资本积累等因素引入技术进步贡献率的计量模型,使技术进步贡献率的度量更接近真实的技术进步情况;进而利用新的技术进步贡献率计量方法重新测算了1987—2003年间中国的技术进步状况,发现中国技术进步贡献率已开始出现稳步增长的趋势。

After analyzing the disadvantage of Solow＇s Residual Method, this paper constructs a new model to estimate and decompose the contribution of technical change in China on the basis of the new growth theories. In order to estimate the contribution of technical change more precisely, this paper integrates three new factors into the new model, including industries structure,captital aggregating, and human capital. With this new model, this paper analyses the technical change in China from 1987 to 2003, and finds that the contribution of technical change in China is growing steadily.