公路交通事故危险性与事故原因的灰色关联分析

Gray relationship analysis between highway traffic accidents dangerous degree and accident causes

交通安全既可以采用交通事故次数来评价，也可以根据交通事故的严重度进行衡量。不同的交通事故诱因，其事故后果的危险程度也不一致。运用灰色系统理论，以某段道路上交通事故多发点的“地点危险指数”为参考数列，以这些地点的不同事故诱因为比较数列，对“事故危险指数”和引发交通事故的各类事故原因之间作灰色关联分析，可以找出该路段上危害性最大的一些交通事故成因，在交通管理和交通安全宣传教育中有针对性地进行防治。本文以107国道1716—1883公里的交通事故数据为例给出了算例。

Quantities as well as severities of traffic accidents can all be used to evaluate the traffic safety level. However, there are discrepancies in danger of accidents caused by different traffic offences. The grey system theory was introduced to study the grey relative degree between spot danger index and accidents causes, which indicates that the greater relative degree is, the more dangerous those accident causes are. As a result, those most dangerous traffic accident causes may be found out, which can be the main targets of the tragic management and propagation. Finally, the traffic accidents data of 1716 - 1883 km, G107 are calculated as an example.